NEWS

Norway’s oil regulator reduced its forecast for production this year, predicting crude output could drop to the lowest in three decades before recovering in 2020.

• Oil output of 82.2 million cubic meters, or 1.42 million barrels a day, would be the lowest since 1988. The forecast compares to actual production of 86.2 million last year, and is down from an earlier estimate of 87.2 million.

Key Insights

• NPD says oil output was affected by new developments becoming more complex than anticipated and that fewer than expected wells have been drilled. Director General Bente Nyland added in an interview that delays and issues on new projects in 2018 would continue to affect output this year, forcing a reduction in the production forecast.
• The NPD expects oil companies to drill 53 exploration wells offshore Norway in 2019, unchanged from last year, as the industry recovers from a recent downturn.
• Investments in the offshore industry are set to rise 13 percent in 2019 to more than 140 billion kroner, excluding exploration.
• The forecasts confirm that Norway’s oil industry is in full recovery mode, thanks to higher commodity prices but also drastic cost cuts that have made more projects profitable, even considering the recent relapse in crude prices. Still, the NPD again warned that the industry faces a slowdown toward the middle of the next decade due to a lack of new, big projects.