NEWS

• DNV publishes Energy Transition Outlook North America. The report covers the energy future of the U.S. and Canada through to 2050

• Policies are triggering massive investment into new technologies, accelerating the energy transition in North America

• Domestic fossil fuel demand declines 60%, mainly in transport and power sectors, but export remains stable while domestic energy use is declining

• Household energy expenditure halves by 2050 driven by energy efficiency and a cleaner energy mix driving energy affordability

New York, Sept. 25, 2023 – Federal and household spending on energy in the U.S. and Canada will drop sharply as the two countries reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, according to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook North America. The new report explores the most likely energy future of the U.S and Canada to the middle of the century and it forecasts 12 trillion dollars will be spent in the two countries on grid and renewables between now and 2050. The intrinsic efficiency of renewables and electrification mean that overall expenditure on energy will be the equivalent of 2.5% of GDP by 2050, compared to 4% now. The report forecasts capital expenditure (CAPEX) on renewables will overtake fossil fuel CAPEX by 2040 as domestic demand for the latter falls by some 60% by the middle of the century.

Electrification will be a key driver of the energy transition, which will ultimately benefit consumers. Household energy bills are set to halve by 2050 as they reap the rewards of cheaper electricity generated by renewables. To support the influx of renewable energy resources, the grid must undergo a vast expansion, increasing its capacity 2.5 times by 2050. The Outlook takes into consideration the current bottleneck in transmission lines, which, if not addressed, will limit the attractiveness of wind and solar installations. Policies have already been initiated in the U.S. and Canada to address the lack of grid capacity, although ultimately DNV believes that transmission- and distribution-system operators will be driven by the unprecedented opportunity to capitalize on the vast market for renewable power.

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