Norway has built a reputation as one of the calmest and most predictable corners of the global oil industry, but lately it’s been full of surprises.

During the worst downturn in a generation, from 2014 to 2016, companies would regularly exceed official forecasts as oil production rose in defiance of falling prices. More recently, with crude surging back to multiyear highs, they’ve run into trouble.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate now expects output to fall to a 31-year low in 2019, with production expected to be almost 60 million barrels short of its previous forecast for this year and in 2018. That’s 80,000 barrels a day less than expected.

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