Before joining the German Marshall Fund, Stokes served as the director of Global Economic Attitudes at Pew Research Center, and he drew upon his extensive polling and analysis expertise when presenting a broad spectrum of recent polling. The polls highlighted various trends, ranging from Trump’s job approval to increased partisanship.
Stokes then explored the factors driving these trends. A particular focus was the tremendous rate of change in the US, which he explained by noting the increasing rapidity by which the House, Senate, and White House change party hands.
“Between 1960 and 1979, the House, Senate, or White House changed hands three times. In the twenty years to follow, from 1980-1999, it happened four times. However, between 2000 and now, it’s happened eight times.”
A critical factor in understanding the American perception of change, Stokes added, is demographic development. The US is rapidly becoming more diverse, with more than 38% of the US population having a non-white background. Simultaneously, middle- and lower-class wages have stagnated, and regardless of background, fewer and fewer Americans can claim to have realized the American dream by earning more than their parents.
All in all, Stokes concluded, these trends have coalesced to create a demographically divided, highly partisan electorate.