In collaboration with fellow Nordic AmChams, AmCham Norway hosted an exclusive session on the 2020 US Elections with Fox News Radio White House Correspondent Jon Decker and Eirik Bergesen, a political commentator, US expert, and former diplomat currently co-hosting Trumps verden on TV2.
Decker broke down the election state-by-state, bringing together the latest electoral trends with his decades of experience covering American presidential politics. While an escalating unemployment rate, massive protest movements around racial discrimination, and a global pandemic present critical challenges to Trump’s re-election chances, Decker noted that Trump’s core voter base remains unwavering in its support of the President.
Decker argued that three states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – will likely play the deciding role in the 2020 election. Wisconsin, in particular, stand out as especially critical, and Decker estimates that whoever wins the state of Wisconsin will be the strongest candidate to win the White House come November. Biden’s pick for vice president, Decker added, could be instrumental in securing these key battleground states. He then went on to underline the importance of analyzing the election holistically, eschewing national polls for state-by-state and district-by-district analysis. US presidential elections, as Decker reminded participants, are not decided by the popular vote but rather the Electoral College, something political commentators around the world were starkly reminded of in 2016. Decker concluded by underscoring the difficulty political pundits and analysts alike will have in predicting the outcome, noting “this race for the White House will be exceedingly close.”
Following his presentation, Decker engaged in an interactive discussion with event participants moderated by Bergesen. Bergesen began by reflecting upon the extensive amount of time he has spent in the United States, concluding that he, like many others, did not predict Trump’s victory in 2016. He then noted the genuine interest for US politics in the Nordics, highlighting how many wonder how Trump’s poll numbers remain so consistent, despite a near constant stream of complex political developments. Bergesen and Decker concluded by fielding questions ranging from the impact of evangelical Christians on the electoral cycle to Biden’s choices for vice president.